Economic Pressure Continues to Impact Restaurant/Bar Traffic

Source: GuestMetrics

Full Service On-Premise:  Full service restaurant and bar traffic was down 1.2% during the 4 weeks ending June 15th (this has improved slightly vs. the YTD traffic decline of 1.4%).  Sales were up 1.6% in the latest 4 weeks vs. up 1.4% YTD. 

GuestMetrics Industry Research and Trends

Alcohol Categories:  Beer volume was down 3.8% during the 4 weeks through 6/15 compared to down 4.1% YTD.  Wine volume was up 0.4% in the latest 4 weeks and down 1.5% YTD. Spirits volume was down 0.3% for the latest 4 weeks and down 0.7% YTD.  Total alcohol volume was down 1.9% in the latest 4 weeks vs. down 2.4% YTD.  On a dollar basis, beer sales were down 0.6% latest 4 weeks, wine sales were up 1.4% latest 4 weeks and Spirits dollars were up 2% in the latest 4 weeks, bringing total alcohol dollars up 1% for the 4 weeks through 6/15. 

Non-Alcoholic Bev & Food:  Non-alcoholic beverage volume was down 4.1% in the latest 4 weeks with sales down 2.8%, while food volume was down 0.2% with food dollars up 2.2% in latest 4 weeks.

Pricing:  Price/mix remains strong for beer, up 3.3% in the latest 4 weeks with wine price/mix up 1.1% and Spirits price/mix up 2.3%.  Food inflation was up 2.4% during the latest 4 weeks. 

Beer Segments:  In the latest 4 weeks Premium Lights dollar share loss moderated to down 1.6% (year over year) vs. down 1.8% in Q1; Craft dollar share gains moderated to +1.9% in the 4 weeks through 6/15 vs. the 2.3% share gain in Q1.  Imports dollar share losses also moderated slightly, down 0.3% in the latest 4 weeks vs. down 0.5% in Q1.  Cider dollar share gains held steady at +0.6% in the latest 4 weeks, similar to the Q1 gain. 

Beer Styles:  IPA's continue to be the fastest growing style, gaining 1.5 dollar share points in the 4 weeks through 6/15

Spirits Categories:  On the spirits front, brown spirits continue to solidly outperform.  Bourbons/Blends gained 3 share points, Irish gained 0.3% share points, while Vodka lost 1.4 share points and Rum lost 0.6 share points.  Tequila share was flattish.

Wine Detail:  On the wine front, wine by the glass continues to gain share from wine by the bottle (with wine by the glass share up 0.9% dollar share points).  Consumers continue to trade up to higher price points for wine with Luxury, Ultra-Premium and Super Premium gaining share from Popular Premium and Economy. By varietal we are seeing YTD share gains for Malbec, Sauvignon Blanc, Cabernet Sauvignon and Pinot Grigio while share losers include Chardonnay, Merlot, Zinfandel and Shiraz. 

US Consumer:  On the consumer front, data from sister company Consumer Edge Research continues to show pressure on the low/middle income consumer and strength in the high income consumer - helping to explain channel pressure on casual restaurants and bars while fine dining continues to outperform.  We continue to monitor pressure from food inflation and gas prices on the lower income consumer and if this creates additional pressure over the summer season.  


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