What POS data is Saying about Trends in On-Premise

Bill Pecoriello GuestSciences Keeping abreast of on-premise trends in the chain hospitality landscape is an important aspect of success.

At this year’s VIBE Conference, Bill Pecoriello of GuestSciences explored these on-premise trends as it relates to both food and beverage. He specifically looked at the craft beer influx, brown vs. clear liquid preferences and how traffic trends have affected sales.

It has been five years since the economy nearly crashed and many of the measures of broad consumer health are still less than 50% recovered to pre-recession levels.  This greatly affects not only the traffic to restaurants and on-premise trends but the consumption of adult beverages as well.

Here are some quick highlights from Pecoeriello’s presentation at the VIBE Conference.


-       Dinner accounts for nearly half of beers volume. While late night only accounts for 20% of beer sales, it was responsible for 60% of the decline in beer volume in 2013 relative to 2012.

-       There were pockets of strength, particularly in Craft Beer and Hard Cider. As a result, share-wise, there was a shift to Craft and Cider from the Premium and Import segments.

-       In terms of beer styles, I.P.A., Cider, and Wit Ale continue to take share. Almost exclusively from Pale Lagers.


-       In terms of top 10 largest share gainers, 6 are brown spirits including Jameson, Fireball and Maker’s Mark.

-       Flavored spirits has slowed yet is still steadily outperforming unflavored spirits.

-       Craft spirits outperformed main stream spirits in 2012 and 2013 with 9% growth.

-       Margaritas still hold the largest share in cocktails. According to flavors in cocktails, punch is hot, tea is not.


-       Consumers have been consistently trading down from bottles to glasses when ordering.

-       2013 vs. 2012: Sauvignon Blanc continues to show strength and Merlot is the largest share donor.


-       Entrees account for 70% of total sales and appetizers taking aggressive share of mix as consumers use apps to replace the other courses.



Bill Pecoriello is CEO of GuestSciences LLC and Consumer Edge Research LLC.  Bill founded Consumer Edge Research in 2009 and acquired a majority stake in Guestmetrics in January 2011. GuestMetrics merged with Restaurant Sciences in February 2014 and formed GuestSciences.  GuestSciences turns billions of raw transactions into intelligible information that is fundamentally transforming the business operations of everyone from the independently-owned bar/restaurant on the corner, to multi-national chains, to the food & beverage companies that supply them. Consumer Edge Research is a preeminent research boutique focused on global consumer industries. Prior to founding Consumer Edge Research, he was a Managing Director at Morgan Stanley covering the global consumer products industry for over seven years. He also spent over five years at Sanford Bernstein, where he was a Partner and covered the Beverage and Tobacco sectors.  Mr. Pecoriello was also a project manager and Strategic management consultant at Mars & Co, for five years where he consulted to the senior management teams of consumer product companies on strategic issues the companies faced. He was a top ranked Beverage Analyst by Institutional Investor for 11 years and held the number one position from 2003-2008. He is often quoted in major media such as the Wall Street Journal, NY Times, CNBC, Business Week, Reuters, Bloomberg and the Financial Times.

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